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买量金融学：如何做一份“大概率失败”的工作？_我的网站

一 |     有个朋友在从其他行业跳到乙方买量公司做设计师，呆了3个月。                   前几天跟我聊天说，自己已经看明白了，买量没有任何技术，自己TM一天产出12个视频，旁边的买量员框框往系统里传，就咱乙方小破公司，京东的外卖，网易的燕云，阿里的三战，全都能hold住，就这么简单，随便来个人都能干，这有啥竞争力？                    说到这里，意犹未尽，继续吐槽：你们之所以能在公司上班，都是老板对你的恩赐，好好抱紧老板的大腿，别等过几天来了个新人替代了你。

二 |     Suzanne Somers, the actress best known for her roles in TV comedies including "Three's Company" and "Step by Step," has died, her longtime publicist announced Sunday. She was 76 years old.“Suzanne Somers passed away peacefully at home in the early morning hours of October 15th," R. Couri Hay said in a statement. "She survived an aggressive form of breast cancer for over 23 years. Suzanne was surrounded by her loving husband Alan, her son Bruce, and her immediate family. Her family was gathered to celebrate her 77th birthday on October 16th. Instead, they will celebrate her extraordinary life, and want to thank her millions of fans and followers who loved her dearly."A private family burial will take place this week, Hay said, and a memorial will be held next month.Born Suzanne Marie Mahoney on Oct. 16, 1946, in San Bruno, California, Somers got her acting start in the late '60s and early '70s with small roles and bit parts in films like the 1968 Steve McQueen action classic "Bullitt," and Clint Eastwood's "Magnum Force" in 1973. That same year, she also had a brief but memorable appearance in the George Lucas-directed "American Graffiti," credited as "Blonde in T-Bird" who silently mouths the words "I love you" to star Richard Dreyfuss before driving away.Somers also appeared throughout the 1970s on hit TV shows including "The Rockford Files," "One Day at a Time," "The Six Million Dollar Man," "The Love Boat" and "Starsky & Hutch." However, her big break came when she was cast as the ditzy Chrissy Snow on the ABC sitcom "Three's Company" opposite Joyce DeWitt and the late John Ritter. The series, based on the British sitcom "Man About the House," revolved around the antics of three single roommates – Somers' Chrissy, Ritter's Jack Tripper and DeWitt's Janet Wood – living together platonically."Three's Company" was a hit, running for eight seasons between 1977 and 1984 and spawning several spinoff series. It also made Somers a sex symbol and household name. Before the show's fifth season, Somers famously demanded a raise from $30,000 an episode to $150,000, equal to what male co-star John Ritter reportedly was making then. When producers refused, Somers claimed health issues and declined to appear in two show episodes. Despite her popularity, her role was drastically reduced for the remainder of the season and she was fired when the season ended in 1981. Somers sued the show's producers for $2 million in response but received only a small fraction of what she asked.Widely criticized in the popular press for her "Three's Company" demands, Somers found it difficult for several years to secure acting, other than an occasional TV movie. She also starred on the short-lived, critically drubbed syndicated sitcom "She's the Sheriff" from 1987 to 1989. Somers also headlined a series of one-woman shows on the Las Vegas strip in the 1980s, which she reprised in 2015.To further help make ends meet, in 1990, Somers became the commercial spokesperson for the Thighmaster, a piece of personal exercise equipment meant to be squeezed between one's thighs to develop leg and hip strength. While the ubiquitous infomercials, featuring Somers in heels and a leotard, were widely lampooned, the product was a success, selling millions of units and earning Somers induction into the Direct Marketing Response Alliance Hall of Fame. Under her own business shingle, Somers ultimately began selling her own successful lines of personal products, including skin care, makeup, hair care and health products.Ten years after she was fired from "Three's Company," Somers scored her next big television role, when she was cast on ABC's "Step by Step" alongside "Dallas" alum Patrick Duffy. Similar to the plot of "The Brady Bunch," the sitcom starred Somers and Duffy as Frank and Carol, two single parents who married and blended their families, which consisted of three children each. Somers remained on this show, which was part of ABC's TGIF lineup until it changed networks for its final season, for its entire seven-season run, which ended in 1998.Somers worked sporadically in television in the years after "Step by Step" ended, including brief forays into talk. She gave Broadway a shot in 2005 with her one-woman show "The Blonde in the Thunderbird"– a reference to her cameo in "American Graffiti" more than 30 years earlier – featuring a collection of stories about her life and Hollywood career, but it closed after less than a week of performances due to poor ticket sales and bad notices. She also competed on season 20 of "Dancing with the Stars" in 2015 alongside her professional partner, Tony Dovolani, placing ninth.Somers battled breast cancer multiple times throughout her life. She was first diagnosed with the disease in 2000 during a routine mammogram and subsequently underwent a lumpectomy and radiation therapy for treatment, as well as seeking out alternative therapies. The actress opened up about additional bouts with breast cancer in 2023, telling ABC's "Good Morning America," "every now and then it pops up again, and I continue to bat it down.""This is not new territory for me. I know how to put on my battle gear and I'm a fighter," she continued at the time, adding that her husband had "been by my side every step of the way."Somers wrote numerous books, including memoirs, ones focused on health and wellness, cookbooks and even a collection of poetry. Her most recent was "Two's Company: A Fifty-Year Romance with Lessons Learned in Love, Life & Business," published in 2017.Somers was married twice. Her first marriage, to Bruce Somers, produced her only child, Bruce Jr., and ended in divorce in 1968 after three years. She met her future husband, Alan Hamel, in 1969 when she was a prize model on "Anniversary Game," the short-lived game show he was hosting. The two married in 1977 and remained together until her death.。                   至此，吐槽告一段落。

三 |                    要是5年前，在他还没讲完的时候，我会生气，打断他，摆出事实激烈反驳。                   但现在，我听他讲的这个言论，心中没有任何波澜，只是觉得可爱又好笑。                   由于这个朋友一直在炒股，并且一直潜心学习各种炒股技术。

四 |                    我便回复他：买量确实挺简单的，跟你炒股一样，去券商开个户，把钱充进去，买入，卖出，一共就两个动作，然后你就能赚到大钱了，多简单。

五 |                    朋友当然不是傻子，一下就get到我在说什么，两人对视一笑就转入下一个话题了。

六 |                    之所以把这个事情搬出来讲，是因为最近我找了个金融学的基础课，系统地学了一遍，发现金融学的部分知识，跟做发行做买量非常适配。                   基金经理跟买量员都经常被认为工作没有任何技术含量、AI投放与量化交易的相似之处、交易与买量的流派之分，等等等等。                   所以就把金融和买量中通用的部分，拿出来讲讲，还是蛮有意思的。                   首先，我们看看金融和买量从业者的相似之处。                   基金经理和买量员一样，都要打理远超自身资产的资金，一个用来投资，另一个用来推广，都需要在保本的情况下，不断增加回报。

七 |                    同样的，由于入行门槛被降得非常低，大部分普通人可以快速上手，并且，你的成绩是向群众“公开”的。                   门槛低的职业一般精通更难，所以会给大众一种“对方SB，我上我也行”的错觉，如果薪资待遇再高一点，那就是群众笔下的重点讨伐对象。                   群众可以随意对你指手画脚，对了自证预言，错了也没啥损失，这就对应了文章开头故事的现状。                   在职场中，年底让员工给自己打分，99%的人都会给自己打更高的分数，人们都会认为自己做的贡献大，公司离不开自己。

八 |                    这在投资与买量中也一样，每个人都觉得自己更牛X。                   在2021年的时候，基金爆火，有几个基金经理也顺势走红，比如张坤、葛兰这二位。                   那时候，基民们亲切地称他们为战神坤、葛女神。                   2022—2024年，基金整体暴跌，辉煌的战神们也没能扭转大势，二位明星基金经理的昵称被亲切地改为死秃驴、葛大妈。

九 |                    同样的，同一个研发团队研发的产品，上一个你买量买得不错，那你就是小甜甜；新产品买量成本一直搞不下来，那你就变成了牛夫人。                   研发团队没有变，买量的素材和出价变了，所以你是变量，出了问题是变量、也就是你的错，难道是研发的错？                    乍一听好有道理，但用脚趾头想想感觉不对，但这就是真实事件，世界居然如此魔幻？                    自从工作以来，跟其他部门合作过程中，只碰到过一只手可以数过来的人，能稍微有点市场知识，其他人对于市场可谓是狗屁不懂，但人人都觉得自己很懂。

十 |                    他们会用自己从网络上、别人口中听到的某个奇淫技巧，对你的工作指指点点；                    也会一上来就让你搞个SOP以掩饰自己的无知，同时树立权威；                    更大部分，把你当成救命稻草，好像你一来就能把屎一样的产品投起来，发现你没有那么神之后便换人，继续找下一个救命稻草。                   买量员跟基金经理，或者上升到市场从业者和资金主理人，都逃不过这样的命运。                   那么如何应对呢？                    金融圈有个段子，把一枚硬币抛出去，国徽朝上的概率，都比这些专业投资者的投资成功率高。                   也就意味着，专业投资者的成功率连50%都没有。                   有人专门把国内最顶尖的基金经理的历史战绩做出分析，发现他的选股成功率大概是40%。                   之前我一直以为这是段子，现在在专业的金融学课程里面听到，还是有点诧异的。                   那么普通人，投资挣钱的概率是多少？                    前段时间公布的数据，资金规模10万元以内的散户，亏钱率高达99%，随着资金规模的扩大，亏钱率逐步降低，资金规模100万以上的账户，盈利率在90%以上。                   这也印证了金融学的一条关键知识，学金融知识是为了减少错误决策，而不是学完了变成投资大师财富自由。                   这点在发行买量中同样适用。                   金融投资的执行工作部分没那么复杂，上手门槛低，但是这个行业吃资源吃人脉，对学历也有要求，从业人员年薪很轻松上百万，所以跟普通人无关。                   当你的收入跟管理资金的规模挂钩，不管客户赚与赔，你都赚钱的时候，就不在乎别人的评价了，骂声越大代表越赚钱，还恨不得你多骂我几嘴呢。                   买量员，或者说市场从业者，薪资没那么高，怎么办？                    首先，既然选择了这个岗位，那么你遭受质疑的概率高达99%，所以要工资的时候就多要一点，多出来的那些，就是窝囊费。                   窝囊费要的多一点，自己遭遇质疑、挨骂的时候，心里的委屈承受空间便大一点。                   其次，买量知识、素材方法论、数据分析这些，要不要学？                    当然要。                   跟学金融知识一样，学完这些，并不会让你财富自由，但可以减少你的决策失误率，最后，谁犯的错越少，谁活的时间久，才不是输家。                   注意，不一定是大赢家，但不是输家。                   另外，当你把行业知识融会贯通后，以外行能听懂的话来跟其他人沟通，会更容易获得信任，即便有一窍不通者对你张牙舞爪，你也能一下戳破对方，自信回应，让其再也不敢轻易挑衅。                   对于市场工作者来说，公司、领导的信任是最重要的一环，能在各种问题上说服对方听取你的意见，也是非常重要的能力。                   再真实一点，如果你真的碰到不太懂市场的研发向老板，他给授权，只看结果，但喜欢通过质疑的方式给非常大的压力。                   但是产品就是很拉跨，你要强行给用户喂屎。                   这个时候，主动赛马是最好的选择。                   好几个团队拼命干，都达不到他的要求，但你是这几个团队里干得最好的，这个时候他不考虑产品的问题也不行了。                   买量员的命，就这么苦。                   不说了，我先去哭一会。                   本文来自微信公众号：游戏马可听，作者：游戏马可听。

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